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People, holding banners and flags, gather to celebrate the ceasefire between Iran and Israel as they gather at the Revolution Square in Tehran, Iran on June 24, 2025. [Fatemeh Bahrami - Anadolu Agency]

Iran’s post-conflict celebration of victory may be over, but the worries of the Islamist regime are not. As the events of the past month have exposed shortcomings of Iranian grand strategy, which left the home front vulnerable, the regime representatives now appear to be cosying up to China. Popular media have also started reporting on Iran’s plans to shift towards China for defence procurements and assuage its security vulnerabilities, especially in the air domain. Such a shift, however, remains difficult for several reasons, ranging from domestic weaknesses to regional geopolitical alignments. If the past is a prologue, the post-1979 Iran has a record of self-destructive policy choices. Three choices stand out: degradation of the Air Force, creation of parallel military […]

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