Red Sea lines and the return of Arab red lines

The Middle East is entering a quieter but far more consequential rupture. This is not the drama of crowds in public squares or leaders toppled overnight. It is the slow, strategic fracturing of states, coastlines and trust — driven by calculated power plays along the world’s most vital maritime arteries. Recent moves in Yemen, the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea signal not chaos but design. They have forced the Arab world’s centre of gravity, particularly Riyadh, into an overdue reckoning. At stake is a stretch of water barely 30 kilometres wide at its narrowest point: Bab al-Mandeb. Through this chokepoint flows roughly 12 per cent of global trade and nearly 20 million barrels of oil per day, linking […]